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Before Obama became president, hunt for Osama bin Laden has been neglected for a long time.
Bush's last British CIA director Michael Hayden, recalls: "I only February 15, 2009 until and executives say a word. Then, if people ask, you know exactly what the last time where he is when ? I would say, is the 2001 Tora Bora. "
That year, Obama appointed Panetta as CIA director. He gave Panetta's first order, is, "be sure to kill or capture Osama bin Laden as the number one task of the war on terror." This order of business was an extremely controversial Obama campaign's commitment to the continuation of that "if we Obama knows where, but the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to act, we will act and we will kill Osama bin Laden, we will destroy al-Qaeda, which is our number one issue of national security strategy. "
Although there are already many reporters wrote a lot about the events that killed Osama bin Laden story, but the purpose of this paper is to analyze the White House's decision-making process and diplomatic challenges for future lessons learned.
From the thousands of pages of the "911" incident investigation memo, former White House chief counterterrorism adviser Richard Clarke's words smarting. He said: "your government let you fail." To sum up, successfully killed Osama bin Laden, indicating that the U.S. government played a role in the normal.
The victory can be attributed to three factors. If stripped of any of these three factors, one of Osama bin Laden today are still at large, continue to plan attacks on the United States.
1,9 · 11 incident, intelligence agencies and the military sector, the rapid development, so that President Obama has a lot more than the previous means. If the 1998 al-Qaeda attacks on U.S. embassies in Africa, and in 2001 the U.S. military will bin Laden trapped in Tora Bora when Bill Clinton or George W. Bush has so many tools, they will be ordered to take action killed Osama bin Laden. Joint Special Operations Command, Admiral Mike Haven, said: "Without the CIA and the Joint Special Operations Command decades of close cooperation, bin Laden is impossible."
2, the first year after taking office chaos forced Obama in Afghanistan extra care on this issue, Obama's national security decision-making model adherence, thoughtful, and according to the development of the situation at any time to make adjustments.
3, the commander in chief have enough patience aim. This need to reduce the scope of knowledge, because once the action plan will be extremely deadly leak. Until 24 hours before the operation, the majority of members of the National Security Council also ignorant of the action.
This mode of operation, can be used in other national security issues, is still unclear.
Tough choices
Obama start the "capture Osama bin Laden planned" 15 months later, in August 2010, Panetta returned to the White House, Obama to report a good news. CIA discovered in northeastern Pakistan, Osama bin Laden's closest messenger residence. The house is surrounded by five-meter-high wall, Obama's chief counterterrorism adviser Brennan will be named as "fortress." "Fortress" is located in Abbottabad, and the distance between Islamabad and about the distance between Baltimore and Washington, quite. Abbottabad is also Pakistan's most important military academies located.
From now on, Obama was faced with four choices.
1, when the action? If Osama bin Laden is really there, then each delayed one day, Osama bin Laden will increase the likelihood of absconding. If the message in Washington, leaks, any one blog or media coverage can make him alert and cause him to flee.
2, who should participate in the decision-making process? Let more people into the decision-making process, allowing more complete the entire program, to avoid flaws. But more than one person come in, will increase the likelihood of a leak points.
3, in the end should be how to kill or capture Osama bin Laden? Obama has four options: First, loading Hellfire missiles Predator drone attacks (several months after the United States use this method to kill Anwar al-Awlaki), the second is 9000 kg with a B2 bomber dropped a laser-guided Bomb (2011 was used to attack Gaddafi), three with special forces into the raid, four with the Pakistani military to conduct joint military operations.
4, although this is the most important national security issues and the most preferred one, but any decision will have political consequences. As deputy assistant to the President for National Security Affairs noted that all participating people know that Obama "put his presidency are staked." If you choose to continue to wait for Obama, Osama bin Laden gone, Obama would be accused of wasting time, let one enemy escape. If the action fails, he will be their opposition likened Jimmy Carter, this action will be seen as another in 1980 to rescue American hostages failure events.
The biggest surprise was the entire operation throughout this is a surprise. Half a century ago, the CIA discovered Soviet missiles being smuggled to Cuba, causing the Soviet missile crisis. Kennedy heard the news, and asked the first few questions to include: "How long can protect the secret?" His national security adviser, can only guarantee one week. So, Kennedy gave himself five days time to think, check the evidence, listen to negative comments, and more than once changed their point of view. He later wrote that if he was forced in the first 48 hours to make decisions, he would choose airstrike missile base rather than the final naval blockade. The air strikes will eventually lead to nuclear war.
Washington today, a week simply to long and almost a lifetime. But the secret is usually the night, 2009, Obama was good lesson in it. At that time, he tried to rethink its strategy in Afghanistan. When he consulted his new Afghan commander Mike Reese Thor, to assess their situation in Afghanistan, he found himself the entire process - in his own words, "blocking" the. When Obama received Maikelisi up 66 Bristol terror report warned if you do not take immediate measures "to push again," the United States will face big defeat in Afghanistan when he was deeply shocked. When Obama and his national security team met to discuss the issue before Maikelisi Thor's report disclosed by the media. At this time, the president has only two options - either to support his commander, or against it.
This result, in part led to Obama with Duoni replace James Jones as his national security adviser. Later, Obama asked Duoni develop a more proactive national security decision-making mechanism, this mechanism to meet Obama "think twice" style, to take into account the issue before making a decision every angle and every result, while also put forward various challenges program. Duoni policy manager with dry-type language to explain their work, is "the option to maximize the president."
In many reporters opinion, Obama ordered the attack on Osama bin Laden hideout is a very easy thing to do. Panetta said: "If ordinary Americans know what we know, then they will say that anyone can do it no-brainer." But when we no longer consider Obama was faced with the option, the whole thing becomes even more complex, but also more interesting. Hunters know, choose when to fire is the most difficult thing. If too early, you will miss the prey will escape. If late, the sounds may disturb prey. Obama waited five months before deciding to make up.
If, as Panetta said, is a very straightforward decision-making process, why even in the president's opinion has been very clear in the case, the Vice President, Secretary of Defense and other military leaders involved in the main action against this it ? In action before the last meeting, the President initiated the vote, the security team of the most experienced of Defense Secretary Robert Gates expressed opposition to attack. He believes that the commandos into action too dangerous, they may be arrested or killed. Biden also believe that compared with the revenues, operations risks are too high. Military leaders, either peripheral or relatively deep level of participation of the Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Cartwright, are more inclined to air strikes.
"Was so professional approach."
Panetta visited the White House a few weeks later, the CIA deputy director Michael Morell to Donilon and Brennan doing regular reports on the situation, but the fact that no one person. Abbottabad thing it is too sensitive, in order to prevent the State, Defense, or other units fighting each other, this situation from top-secret intelligence report to the president removed the day.
June 2010, the CIA Counterterrorism Center in Morel team say they have 60% Certainty that Osama bin Laden in that room. Morel Obama said: "This is the closest we Tora Bora, Osama bin Laden since the moment." Obama indication that the CIA should take all steps to confirm this clue, but be careful not to disturb prey.
But this is contrary both. CIA's actions will inevitably produce bin Laden or the Pakistani intelligence agencies suspect that they will want to know bin Laden is not the United States where the? More advanced UAV provides information on activities within the house and clearer images, but if once crashed, several months after the RQ170 drone crashed in Iran so, how to do? Action also includes the manufacture of similar birds carefully UAV (it is too realistic, and there has even been an eagle attack) to the analysis of wastewater in order to analyze the genetic makeup. All this is very successful, and some not yet declassified.
There is some information to assist in the arrest of CIA official in Pakistan Abbottabad area for the children to be vaccinated to collect DNA from bin Laden family doctors after public.
From August 2010 to April 2011, 40 copies of material in the series of intelligence assessments, more questions and challenging assumptions put out - especially if that person is not Osama bin Laden, how to do. This is the basis of all issues: From walking exposed to the risk of wind how to identify Osama bin Laden's body.
From August to December, the president's decision-making circles on the matter, only 6 people: Obama, Donilon, Brennan, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, McDonald, Assistant Vice President for National Security Affairs and Biden Bolin Ken Panetta and Morrel support. Until then, Panetta and Morel also discussed sending CIA paramilitary agents to perform tasks possibilities. But they heard about the attacks of the CIA report, study after completion of all operational details, Morrell on Panetta said, "still have to make professional approach."
For a career CIA officer, his intense loyalty to his organization, to say that, is painful, but it is also realistic. Morel know that in the past decade, the military has developed the ability to perform such tasks. Therefore, to obtain the consent of the White House decision-making circles added to the two new members - and only two, namely Mike Haven and Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Cartwright, he was Obama's cronies.
Until this point, decision-making circles not include Cartwright's boss, Joint Chiefs of Staff Mike Mullen and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton even Defense Secretary Robert Gates. In order to do this action funding support work - while ensuring legitimate, Panetta congressional intelligence committee leaders to reveal the general situation of this phase of the operation. Six weeks later, Duoni know Panetta done this, shocked.
Dispatched seals
The president seems that killed Osama bin Laden four options quickly became three, and then turned into two. Obama is the first to examine the end of January when his choice, and Pakistan joint military operations were excluded. January 27, 2011, the CIA contractor Davis was arrested in Lahore. The accident left the White House realize that the relationship between Pakistan and U.S. allies to let no firm commitment, when such a sensitive task. At this point Gates and Mullen also has entered the decision-making circles, the consequences of any decision will be more careful consideration.
After a few weeks, Obama rejected the "Predator" program. This program is used to Predator Hellfire missile attack in the yard every day walking tall mysterious man, the CIA called him "walkers." With drone attacks Osama bin Laden was originally the CIA since the 1990s embarked on a plan.
But Obama based on three reasons to reject:
First, can not guarantee a 230 kg bomb can be completely killed Osama bin Laden; secondly, not willing to hand over the remains of Pakistan, the United States is not able to know how to kill the right people? If you cover up the fact that Pakistan, accusing the U.S. killing of innocent civilians, al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden is still alive announced that the United States how to prove? Again, with the drone attacks, the United States will lose seized in the house can be used to end al-Qaida information opportunities.
For the same reason, Obama also opposed the use of B2 attacks. Cartwright and B2 flying direct contact brigade commander, recognized the need to cast 329,000 kilograms of explosives to blow up the entire house following hidden tunnel, the bombing killed Osama bin Laden will be around for nearly 20 women and children. Houses near Pakistan may also be affected.
Thus, step by step, Obama chose the highest risk, the biggest gain options: sending Navy Seals. Although until April 28 when the conference, B2 and UAV options are also on the table, Obama has with the March 29 directive Mike Haven conduct a "dress rehearsal.
" Although at this time, Panetta that "Walker" is the possibility of Osama bin Laden is 80%, that is 60% Morel, National Counterterrorism Center Director Wright believed that only 40% less likely to believe that Gates and Biden. Morel recalled, when that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction than this probability is high. However, Obama remains confident that the special forces can enter and safely evacuated. Mike Haven convincing explained, "we do so, we took a helicopter to fly in, we attacked the house, we catch the bad guys or doing everything else needs to be done, and then we come out."
But if the Pakistanis find U.S. troop movements of the line, grab them and put them hostage how to do? If the helicopter crashed how to do? In the April 19Day Obama raise these issues at the time, Mike Haven said: "Oh, you say how to do is step on dog feces?" Although Mike Haven had thought of the possibility of the majority, but Obama still found Gates Desert crash tragedy of Carter's memory always lingers. He then explained that there are two alternate final plan of Chinook, loading 24 SEALs on standby, so that even if they were discovered and surrounded by the Pakistani army, they can "break out."
In the last six weeks, the National Security Council in the war cabinet members also opened five times will once again check the various processes. All participating departments must report that Obama encourages competitive point of view and examine repeated his previous view. Even at this stage, informed range is still very small. Gates and Clinton alone must attend, not with deputies or assistants. If you need to let anyone know the situation, you must go through Duoni approval.
Less than a week before action, April 25, the New York Times front-page master WikiLeaks released the Guantanamo Files, which has access to a document is about the CIA and point to the location of Abbottabad messenger that prisoners.
CIA interrogators wrote in the note, who in 2003 received a visit Abbottabad Osama bin Laden "cronies," the letter, inviting him to become bin Laden's "official messenger." If bin Laden's asylum carefully read the New York Times, you will find the United States already know the identity of the messenger, then the other SEALs into this house, I might well have deserted.
April 28, in the Situation Room for the final meeting. Obama asked each consultant what they would do and asked to do a poll. Gates and Biden opposed.
The next morning, at the reception held at the Foreign Affairs briefing, Obama told Donilon, Brennan, and White House chief of MacDonald Daly, "Action." In this case, the circle has expanded the number of informed : Attorney General Eric Holder, Homeland Security Secretary Neapolitan, FBI Director Mueller, Special Assistant to the President Abba Lute, who was advised of action.
One started with just the core six people know the White House action in eight months later, he expanded the scope of knowledge.
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officials issued a public statement ahead before hundreds of domestic and foreign dignitaries to call this matter.
Obama's first phone call former President Bush and Clinton.
Mullen calls Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Kayani, he was shocked stunned. Others call a few key people in Congress, these are Duoni arranged in advance and do a walkthrough. When the news was public knowledge it? MPs call five minutes later, the president's televised speech yesterday, CNN will broadcast it.
Experiences and lessons learned
First, this case tells us the U.S. government has the ability to make outstanding deeds of special circumstances. Relatively speaking, the challenge will be how to excellence in special circumstances apply to everyday events.
Secondly, sometimes, confidentiality is a must. When something really doing something when the secret is even more important. Osama bin Laden excellent case that success requires to discover secrets and conservative, so in order to give the president room to thinking how to do it. As Donilon said: "In Washington, the road is only one secret, with no one alone."
Third, keep secrets come easily. Narrow circle of decision-making to prevent the disclosure of secret means may lead to ill-considered. If Mullen and Lute at the start to be incorporated into decision-making circles, possibly in post-processing aspects of relations with Pakistan will be much better, it will not result in the backyard of the army in Pakistan humiliate Pakistani military situation. After the attack, Kayani and his subordinates would think the U.S. can do anything, do not say hello to the capture of Osama bin Laden into Pakistan, if one day the United States came to seize Pakistan's nuclear weapons how to do? (Few people know Abbottabad Pakistan's nuclear facilities are also located) later, no matter how the Americans say or how to do, Pakistan will be considered in the worst possible U.S. intentions.
This consequence is that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan not only for finding the right exit, but also consider the protection of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, which has become increasingly urgent.
Fourth, from this case, we get the most profound lesson is that the dog bite is not called. After Abbottabad, there is a problem plaguing us: in the end the Pakistanis know bin Laden in that? If the Pakistani military and intelligence leaders allegedly sheltered bin Laden, the United States knew he nominally allies are actually doing something. This and the discovery of the spouse's lover and publicly announced as the same, this relationship will not last long.
But after careful study of the documents seized after the attacks, the harsh fact that the Pakistani military and intelligence layer, no one knows where Osama bin Laden.
Therefore, we must consider another tragic possibility that Pakistani military and intelligence leaders do not even know America's Most Wanted in their country. Osama bin Laden lived in this country for six years, moved five times at home and three wives gave birth to four children (two still born at a local hospital), the country's leadership is also unaware. How can we expect such countries to manage his more than 100 nuclear bombs nuclear arsenal it? This sounds like a fairy tale, but it points to is the case.
The Obama administration's attention on the coming year, the Iranian government is now able to produce its first nuclear bomb more than enough highly enriched uranium. But in the same 12-month period, the Government of Pakistan but they can produce enough to make 12 nuclear raw materials.
So we applaud the wonderful performance of the action when the - low-level intelligence gathering, helicopter maintenance, SEALs outstanding performance, the National Security Council's decision-making process supported the commander in chief of the decisive choice, we still also reflect on our shortcomings. Because in the near future, we are likely to face a more difficult challenge.
May 1 Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, Pakistan's own small courtyard by the U.S. Navy SEALs raid killed.
Since 1998 the United States announced the number one enemy of Osama bin Laden to escape from the United States after a decade-long hunt for bin Laden finally ends. In 1998, Osama bin Laden has been organized and planned in Africa, two American embassies (U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania) bomb attacks, but in 2001 after the September 11 terrorist attacks on official Washington really began to make every effort to use military force against al-Qaeda and technical and start hunting base leader Osama bin Laden.
U.S. President Barack Obama on the hunt for Islamic jihadists covert action given the privileges and promised to gather information about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden with all intelligence.
Last weekend Obama finally realized a commitment to the victims of al-Qaida terrorist attacks upheld justice, but I'm afraid the global war on terror has not yet concluded.
1988 al-Qaeda in Pakistan's northwest city of Peshawar was established, the first few meetings did not put the United States as a hostile target, but with a broad description of its vague wording of the object of attack.
Reporters saw Peter Bergen in the second meeting of al-Qaeda after recording said: "Al-Qaeda is an Islamic extremist organization whose goal in life is faith in God in order to achieve their religious beliefs."
Osama bin Laden announced that it would attack U.S. targets two months later, al-Qaeda orchestrated and blew up the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, two incidents are only separated by nine minutes.
Dar es Salaam in Virginia that killed eight people, the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, 111 people were killed. As shown, August 7, 1998 bombings in Nairobi Rescuers are trying to rescue survivors.
September 13, 2001, Arlington, Virginia, in the United States, the Pentagon President George W. Bush's first position with colleagues sitting at table dinner.
Morning in the White House Situation Room meeting of the National Security Council meeting, the CIA Counter-Terrorism Center Director Corfe Blake stressed: "Although al-Qaeda has always existed, but the Tigers have nap time." Peter Bergen said 911 people depressed the next few days.
Note: Peter Bergen, U.S. Cable News Network (CNN) is well-known war correspondent and commentator, he served as the New America Foundation.
Only three days after the incident in the 911, the ruins of the World Trade Center in New York, Bush rubble heap of aid workers, firefighters and police speech. Bush stood side by side with a retired firefighter Bob Beck Venn, the right is New York Gov. George Pataki.
Bush said to the people: "I can hear your voices, I can hear the world of the other person can hear your voices. Soon I will destroy the building also hear our voices."
October 15, 2001, when anti-Americanism in the burning of the American flag to rally against the United States Secretary of State Colin Powell, Bill Clinton's visit to Pakistan in protest.
U.S. Department of Defense began distributing printed with $ 25 million reward Osama bin Laden and his top aide Ayman Al Zawahiri whereabouts flyers.
As shown, in November 2001 the aircraft was printed leaflets in Arabic will be dropped into Afghanistan. But the reward is not clear whether the amount has been cashed.
December 13, 2001 in the center of electrical appliances store, a man in the CNN broadcast "genuine" first saw the videotape of Osama bin Laden, Osama bin Laden for the first time this is the recognition of its planned U.S. terror 911 attack.
Pentagon spokesman said the videotape was the end of November in 2001 in the eastern Afghan city of Jalalabad found.
December 10, 2001 anti-Taliban fighters chatting, they are behind the looming mountains of Tora Bora in Afghanistan. Anti-Taliban fighters bombed and attacked support Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda tried to rush out from the hidden cave.
Despite the news that came from Guantanamo Bay Osama bin Laden may be the first to flee Northeast Afghanistan, but most people think that Osama bin Laden from Pakistan in the mountains of Tora Bora escape.
December 10, 2001, the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan against Taliban fighters facing a hill a patrolling tanks prayers.
May 15, 2002, Washington, Pentagon news conference U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is in Iraq and Afghanistan on the next course of action, the situation in Iran and North Korea and other issues of Osama bin Laden wanted to answer reporters' questions. Shortly after the attack on the World Trade Center is another news surfaced on Iraq: 911 attacks within a few hours after the incident, the first assistant to Rumsfeld, in considering whether the record called "simultaneous hunt for Saddam Hussein because, just hunt Osama bin Laden. "
Terrorist attacks in the United States Analysis
Committee met to discuss the 911 attacks. Member Bob Kerrey are listening to an accident report, its behind the big screen is showing top Al Qaeda Khalid Sheikh Mohammed photos. In spring 2003 a US-Pakistan joint operation, Mohammed in Rawalpindi (Pakistan northeastern city) was arrested by U.S. forces from custody.
Muhammad was sent to the military or civil court issues a year-long debate, the Obama administration postponed because of this initial decision to close the Guantanamo prison, and later handed over to the civil division of its. The Obama administration recently decided to Muhammad eventually pay to the military tribunal for trial.
March 18, 2004, bombings in central Baghdad site, a hotel and the nearby three buildings were destroyed, American soldiers are distributing a reward of $ 10 million hunt al-Qaeda suspect Abu Massad · Ka Zhayi flyers.
Jordanian anti-Shiite militants Ka Zhayi to al-Qaeda leader's identity will lead the civil war in Iraq, in June 2006 by F-16 dropped two 500 pounds heavy bomb.
January 6, 2006, the peninsula broadcasters aired the 2nd Al Qaeda leader Ayman Zawahiri in the secret place of the video speech, Steve Kerr said, "like to argue and tone deaf will responsible for al-Qaeda leadership responsibility, whether Osama bin Laden was killed is not clear.
June 13, 2010, a U.S. Predator drone missile
Equipped aircraft parked on the tarmac of Kandahar military airport is preparing to take off. Although the United States since 2004 has been on the tribal areas of Pakistan drone air strikes carried out 230 times, but no one was against Osama bin Laden.
40 miles from the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, Abbottabad away inside a courtyard, the U.S. military raid on Osama bin Laden was killed by headshots.
May 1st U.S. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Defense Department officials in the White House Situation Room is concerned about hunting Osama bin Laden's latest action situation.
U.S. President Barack Obama delivered his speech after the country the East Room of the White House announced to the world of Osama bin Laden has been killed.
"Today, according to my plan, the capital of the United States to Pakistan's Abbottabad compound has been designated a bombing," he said, "a U.S. military squad with immense courage and outstanding ability to complete this action,
I Army without any casualties, but try to avoid civilian casualties. firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and properly handle their corpses. "
"Today, according to my plan, the capital of the United States to Pakistan's Abbottabad compound has been designated a bombing," he said, "a U.S. military squad with immense courage and outstanding ability to complete this action,
I Army without any casualties, but try to avoid civilian casualties. firefight, they killed Osama bin Laden and properly handle their corpses. "
May 2, 2010, Helmand province, Afghanistan, Camp Dwyer clan members are watching the 1st Marines Obama announced that Osama bin Laden's death video.
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| Obama announced the death of Osama bin Laden, the students gathered outside the White House fence north waving American flag, repeatedly shouting "Long live America! U.S. Hooray!" And sang the U.S. national anthem, "Star-Spangled Banner." |
Afghan President Hamid Karzai said bin Laden "has been duly punished," even if the United States and NATO warned Afghans trying to Osama bin Laden's death does not mean the end of international engagement in Afghanistan.
May 2, mountain capital of Pakistan Osama bin Laden's Abbottabad hideout.
May 2, Pakistan Army soldiers from nearby hiding place of Osama bin Laden to leave.
June 15, 2005 the capital of Abbottabad in Pakistan, a satellite map display and bin Laden was killed in the courtyard.
May 2 White HouseA man holding a newspaper page displays news bin Laden was killed. Analysts warned that the death of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda Taliban is undoubtedly blockbuster, but that does not mean the end of a terrorist organization.
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